More media predictions for 2009

Lost Remote’s Cory Bergman calls Dianne Mermigas “one of the smartest, most pragmatic media columnists I’ve ever read. She never resorts to hyperbole.” He then points us to her predictions for 2009. A few of my favorites:

“Major advertisers such as automotives, financial services, retail and real estate will not return any time soon; they will be diminished and different when they rebound a year from now. That is a disaster for local media, which could easily see more than half their ad revenue base wiped out in 2009. For instance, automotives generally have comprised 40% of local TV income.

“Local is the new social. Some local TV broadcasters and newspapers will begin to monetize enough to stay in business. Some Internet players will begin to dabble more in this huge void. Relevant local information, social sharing, retail coupons, school and community data, sports scores, car pools, etc. remain a big missed opportunity.It will be delivered to Internet-connected mobile devices, including smartphones. A new player will emerge and do for local content and services online what Craigslist did for regionalized classified advertising.”

“Mobile connectivity will become the core platform. The road to universal WiFi and WiMax may be bumpy, but anywhere, anything interactivity on smartphones, video-friendly PDAs and other wireless mobile devices will be the global screen of choice. Primary drivers will include interactive communications, location-based services and e-transactions.”

I have no idea what 2009 will bring but I don’t think we’re in Kansas any more.

I’ll be i20 on January 1st

I have not felt my age for years. I’ve always felt (and acted?) much younger. Or so it seems to me. You might recall that I turned 60 back in March and I sure as hell don’t feel 60.

And on January 1st, 2009, I will no longer BE “sixty.” My new –more accurate age– will be i20 (“I” for Internet). My new “doi” (date of Internet) is 1/1/89:

“CompuServe was the first online service to offer Internet connectivity, albeit limited access, as early as 1989 when it connected its proprietary e-mail service to allow incoming and outgoing messages to other Internet e-mail addresses.” – Wikipedia

No presents, please.

Internet overtakes newspapers as news source

From latest Pew Research Center Survey:

“Currently, 40% say they get most of their news about national and international issues from the internet, up from just 24% in September 2007. For the first time in a Pew survey, more people say they rely mostly on the internet for news than cite newspapers (35%).

For young people, however, the internet now rivals television as a main source of national and international news. Nearly six-in-ten Americans younger than 30 (59%) say they get most of their national and international news online; an identical percentage cites television. In September 2007, twice as many young people said they relied mostly on television for news than mentioned the internet (68% vs. 34%).”

Radio gained a little ground (from September 2007 to December 2008) among young people (18-29), up from 13% to 18%.

In this essay, Terry Heaton argues that just surviving is not a strategy:

“This theme of surviving 2009 is everywhere, but I’d like to pose an important question for anybody so hunkered, hanging, waiting or rowing, because waiting it out assumes “it” will end and that there will be a reward for those who are still standing when “it” is over. I’m not so sure, so here’s the question: What if the old model is gone for good and it doesn’t come back?”

UPDATE 12/26/08: A number of folks have accuratelty pointed out that a LOT of the news on the Net comes from newspapers. Worth noting but doesn’t solve any of the problems facing newspapers. If it comes down to getting less news (volume and variety) online or buying a copy of the Daily Bugle, online is gonna win. Business models will evlove that will support quality reporting w/o the overhead of current publishing models.

I am not that smays

I was trying out the new People Search feature on Twitter and discovered another “smays.” And he is also “Steve Mays.” There should be no confusion, however, because he appears to be very smart and successful.

“Steve Mays, Chief Technical Officer — Steve has over 15 years experience in senior technology development positions. His former roles include Director of Infrastructure Services and IT Security Analyst for Semaphore Partners, Chief Information Officer for Xamplify, Inc., Director of Technology and Founder of Gloss.com and Manager of Online Operations for Vivendi Universal. Steve holds a BS in Business Management and an MBA in Global Business Management from University of Phoenix.”

Couldn’t find an email but maybe he’ll see this. We could drive up to Seattle and have a beer with the other Steve Mays West

Taking the “paper” out of “newspaper”

“The American Society of Newspaper Editors is planning to remove “paper” from its name and expand its membership to include editors of online-only news Web sites and journalism educators.” — CyberJournalist.net.

I’ve scratched my head on this one –as it pertains to radio– in numerous posts. What is radio? Gotta have a tower and transmitter? An FCC license? Is an Internet station with 100,000 listeners not “radio,” while a small-town AM station with 10,000 listeners is “radio?”

Please take out your Blue Books and write a 500 page essay on: Defining Radio in the 21st Century. Begin.