Radio to decline 2.5%. Blame iPods and satellites.

Some interesting stats coming out of the Kagan Radio/TV Summit in New York. The CIBC World Markets director of research says radio can expect an overall 2.5% annual radio audience decline this year owing primarily to iPods and satellite radio.

According to independent research commissioned by Sirius, once consumers get a Sirius radio, they spend 83% of their radio time with Sirius and 7% with traditional radio. So whats commercal radio to do? According to the presentation: Increase local content; upgrade national sales efforts; get better research data; Hire TV people (“they know how to sell in a declining market.”)

Local News

The news director at the station in my home town called this morning to ask about my brother. Lots of folks in Kennett know he is in Indonesia and have been asking about him. I told him what little I knew. Just a little human interest story. Very local. A big city station or a “nothing but the hits” station wouldn’t consider this remotely newsworthy. I’m really glad to know they’ve started doing this kind of local news again (maybe they never stopped).

At about the same time, I received a pointer (from XM Ben) to an interesting article on the state of radio in 2004 (Radio in 2004: An Overview, by Lawrence Stoler):

“One of radio’s strong points that can not necessarily be achieved to the fullest extent on satellite radio is localism. In other words, being out and active in the community. Being at the scene of an important event at a moment’s notice and providing necessary information to the residents of where a station is licensed to broadcast. The industry has to resume this practice of being community active. Radio has to go back to providing information after 8:30 AM during the week or in the evening after #7 and on weekends too. Not every area of the country has a 24 hour all news station within hearable range.”

I honestly don’t see how radio stations (or TV stations, for that matter) will survive without a strong, serious commitment to local news.

Transmitter for Sale

When I first started working at the radio station (1972), we were required to take transmitter readings every 15 minutes. Keeping the transmitter on was the number one –and obvious– priority. And I guess that’s still true for radio stations today. No transmitter…no radio. But not for TV.

On Monday we noticed we were not receiving the local ABC affiliate. Just static. We watch very little network TV these days but still try to catch Peter Jennings and we’re hanging in for the final season of NYPD Blue. So I called the TV station and asked the lady who answered the phone what was going on.

“One of our transmitter tubes went out over the weekend but you can get us on the cable,” she explained.

“I don’t have cable,” I infomed her.

“So, how do you watch us?”

“I have an antenna.”

“Oh. Well, we should have the transmitter working again by the end of the week.”

This struck me as something of a revelation. The TV station wasn’t concerned that their trasmitter was down. The “signal” (content) was getting out via cable. I wanted to ask her about the rural viewers that don’t have cable but there aren’t enough of us to pose a problem.

I started wondering what does the local TV station add to the content mix? Their local newscast. Local weather. Bunch of local commercials. It just feels like those local affiliates are becoming less important every day.

All of this reminded me of ABC Now, the network’s effort to deliver content by non-traditional means. How much would I pay to be able to download World News Tonight directly from the network? Or NYPD Blue? I’m already doing this with XM and it works just fine, thank you.

In conclusion, I guess I’m no more concerned about the TV station transmitter being dark than they are.

The Daily Show’s Stephen Colbert

on covering the GOP convention: “We want to find out actual information about Republicans. We want to know where the pods are, where they’re grown, and we want to photograph them before they’re harvested.” Next to XM’s “Everything, All the Time,” The Daily Show’s “The Most Trusted Name in Fake News” might be the best tag line ever.

National Association of Broadcasters

The cover story (by Scott Woolley) in the September issue of Forbes is really more about the National Association of Broadcasters than XM Radio.

“For decades the radio industry has crushed incipient competitors by wielding raw political muscle and arguments that are at once apocalyptic and apocryphal. Radio station owners, who formed the National Association of Broadcasters in 1923, have won laws and regulations that have banned, crippled or massively delayed every major new competitive technology since the first threat emerged in 1934: FM radio.”

What would radio be like if broadcasters put this much energy into doing better radio?

XM Radio to introduce digital storage

From NY Times story: Later this week, XM is set to introduce receivers capable of storing up to 30 minutes of any live broadcast to play back at a later time. With a function that works much like the pause control of a digital video recorder, the units will also be able to replay the last 30 minutes of the channel to which the unit was most recently tuned. Both companies also offer models that let users store the names of favorite artists and titles. When one of those is playing on another channel, the receiver beeps to alert the listener. In XM’s case, the unit will also automatically switch to that other station. Next month, Sirius will introduce its Sportster model, designed to complement its introduction of NFL Radio, which is a new talk channel, and several channels to transmit every NFL game. The radio can be programmed to jump automatically to the correct station when one of the user’s favorite teams is playing.

To appeal to investors, XM’s Roady2 can display continuously updated stock quotes across the screen. Sirius plans to introduce a radio with a similar feature. Beginning this fall, XM will offer NavTraffic, giving owners of the Acura RL and the Cadillac CTS the ability to combine XM’s continuously updated traffic information with the car’s navigation system, producing color-coded maps showing traffic delays, allowing drivers to obtain alternate routings.

To make it easier to receive satellite radio in the home, Sirius will introduce a $129 accessory antenna that, mounted on the roof, will transmit a signal through the walls into a secondary unit attached to the receiver. And by the beginning of next year, Sirius will offer a receiver that can download Sirius programming from the Internet for later playback in areas where signals cannot reach.

42 million sat radio subs by 2009?

XM Satellite Radio and Sirius Satellite Radio could have more than 42 million subscribers by the end of 2009, according to a report by SkyWaves Research. Two week ago, XM announced that it had surpassed 2 million subscribers. On May 11, Sirius said it had reached the 400,000 mark.

What will radio look and sound like in 15 years?

(Forbes.com) “Had we asked the same question 15 years ago, the answer would have been “pretty much the same.” But it’s clear that radio is going through one of the most fundamental changes in its history since the dawn of stereo FM signals in the 1960s.

Already, satellite radio services like XM Satellite Radio (nasdaq: XMSR – news – people ) and Sirius Satellite Radio (nasdaq: SIRI – news – people ) have proved there’s a market for pay radio, though both have a long way to go before satellite radio is truly a mass-market service the way cable television is today. Ask any subscriber of either service and they’ll tell you they wonder how they ever got along without it.

Terrestrial broadcasters–those that broadcast from the ground, as opposed to in space via satellite like XM and Sirius–are in the process of rolling out enhanced services that will boost sound quality and add the ability to broadcast two programs on one station.

But what makes the future of radio interesting is the Internet. Some of the best radio programming is available online. This can be convenient if you’re from one region of the United States but living elsewhere, for example, and miss a favorite local radio program from back home. So far the best way to do this is via a computer equipped with a broadband connection.

But take a radio and give it a network connection. There are radios and tabletop stereo sets on the market that can connect to the Internet without a computer and stream audio from Internet radio stations. Add in support for Wi-Fi networking–essentially equal to an Ethernet port without a cord–and you have a radio that can go anywhere in the home and play sound from anywhere in the world without regard to the broadcasting station’s location. You may live in San Francisco and listen to state radio from Beijing or London or Bombay as easily as you do local radio, just as long as those faraway stations stream their programming online.

Take it a step further. Wi-Fi is limited by how far a network signal can reach–generally a few hundred feet from the access point or hot spot. Now imagine wireless Internet connections that aren’t as limited by distance. The new buzz is surrounding WiMax, a Wi-Fi-like networking technology that could boast a range of up to 30 miles from its source. Suddenly, every radio station in the world that broadcasts on the Internet will be reachable from nearly anywhere in the world where there’s WiMax coverage. A wireless Internet connection will be an expected feature, not a curiosity found only on a few high-end models. Radio will be a global medium once again.

That’s not all. Radios will have hard drives. At least one handheld radio, the Radio YourWay from Pogo Products, has one. The drives will serve at least two functions. You’ll use them to record favorite shows so you can listen anytime you like–the equivalent of TiVo (nasdaq: TIVO – news – people ) for television.

Second, the drives will be used to cache extra content that comes embedded inside the radio signal. You’ll select certain local stations that will broadcast constantly updated news, traffic, weather and perhaps even stock quotes, and those broadcasts will be automatically stored for you to listen to anytime you want to hear them at the push of a button.

Having a hard drive embedded in a radio opens up another range of possibilities. If a radio has both an Internet connection and a hard drive, it will be able to download software that gives it increased functionality. Radios will be able to do many things if only their owners are willing to pay for the features. Inside these radios will be chips that can adapt to whatever task they’re called upon to do.”

Forbes.com

St. Louis Traffic and Weather.

I finally got around to listening to the new “local weather & traffic” channels on XM Radio. Twenty-one cities to start, including St. Louis. I can’t speak to the accuracy of the content but it sounded like most other weather and traffic reports to me. For that matter, I have no way of knowing –without being in it every day– the accuracy of such reports on local stations. I did like the continuous feeds. If I didn’t want to wait 10 minutes for the next report on KMOX, I could punch up XM 218 and get it almost immediately.

New XM channel?

In a post titled The Death of Broadcast, Jeff Jarvis writes about Howard Stern, broadcast radio and government regulation and where it’s all headed:

– Stern will engineer his firing from Viacom.
– Stern will sign with satellite, giving satellite the boost it needs to become a viable business.
– Buy satellite stock now. Sell radio stock now.
– Broadcast radio will quickly falter, losing attention to MP3s, satellite, and cellular broadcast. Broadcast radio will die. Consolidation won’t kill it. Censorship will.
– Satellite will grow rapidly, getting more consumer revenue and ad revenue.
– Broadcast TV will suffer similar blows.
– Cable and satellite TV will grow.
– The bottom line: Any medium that can be government-regulated will shrink; any medium free of government regulation will grow.