Radio ad spending in decline

In an article on RealMoney.com, Cody Willard steers investors away from big broadcast companies:

“… the tens of billions of dollars spent on radio advertising are in a steady, secular decline, and that’s not pretty for those companies that have depended on those models for revenue, nor for those companies that have depended on that outlet to deliver their message.”

I spotted one positive nugget in his piece:

“Regional radio is coming back and will find its niche again. But the days of big radio are over.”

I don’t know if Mr. Willard is right and I’m not sure what –if anything– this will mean for the company I work for. But I’m a “small radio” guy at heart and have no tears for the Big Broadcasters. Nor do they need any. They’ve made their millions and it’s safely tucked away in some off-shore tax haven.

Radio to decline 2.5%. Blame iPods and satellites.

Some interesting stats coming out of the Kagan Radio/TV Summit in New York. The CIBC World Markets director of research says radio can expect an overall 2.5% annual radio audience decline this year owing primarily to iPods and satellite radio.

According to independent research commissioned by Sirius, once consumers get a Sirius radio, they spend 83% of their radio time with Sirius and 7% with traditional radio. So whats commercal radio to do? According to the presentation: Increase local content; upgrade national sales efforts; get better research data; Hire TV people (“they know how to sell in a declining market.”)

Randy Michaels on future of radio

“People today are being entertained different, and that’s a problem for radio. (By the) time a profit is made, satellite radio will be eclipsed by something more profound. Namely, Internet-based radio stations available nationwide thanks to wireless broadband technology. Radio is going to be interactive, and it’s not going to be delivered just by transmitters. The next thing is not satellite, which is another form of point-to-multipoint technology. It will be interactive, two-way communication that’s available to everybody that is the next big thing. Radio companies will have no more defense in defending their business than the railroads did when airplanes came in and took their freight business.”

— Randy Michaels, former Clear Channel Radio CEO, on the future of radio

Radio “schedule integrity”

“Compared to other media, spot radio ranked No. 8 and network radio ranked No. 10 in schedule integrity behind magazines, newspapers, network TV, spot TV, outdoor, syndicated TV, cable TV and Internet. Agencies and advertisers also had less confidence in the accuracy and timeliness of radio affidavits to prove ads ran as ordered than in the affidavits from network TV, spot TV and newspapers.” [Mediaweek story]

From Radio Advertising Bureau’s annual perceptual study (funded by Arbitron):

The wireless Super Bowl

“On the consumer side, the league sees big revenue potential in wireless. The league is moving content from its NFL Network cable channel and Sirius Satellite network to the Internet to bring more dimensions to stories. It’s the first year the Super Bowl is on satellite radio, and the league plans to make audio of the radio calls for the Pats and Eagles available for fans to download to their MP3 players for $10. And when someone calls their wireless phone, Eagles fans can hear defensive end Jevon Kearse tell them “This is Jevon Kearse. It’s time for you to pick up the phone.” [via RAIN]

BostonHerald.com

“My Very Own Radio Station”

Michael Bazeley, writing in the Mercury News (My Very Own Radio Station), does the best job of ‘splaining the podcasting thing I’ve come across:

“Thanks to a new technology called podcasting, I’ve turned my iPod into a personalized radio station, loading it with talk shows and cutting edge music that I’d never be able hear on traditional radio stations. It’s transformed my listening habits overnight. Although it’s new, I’m convinced podcasting will transform the way many people consume media, just as blogging and TiVo have. When you can program your own radio station, carry it with you anywhere and pause and restart it at will, who needs mainstream, advertising-supported broadcast radio?”

His piece quotes Doc Searls who believes:

“Podcasting will shift much of our time away from an old medium where we wait for what we might want to hear to a new medium where we choose what we want to hear, when we want to hear it, and how we want to give everybody else the option to listen to it as well.”

Hey, I’m just posting this shit so I can say I told you so.

“Radio, as we’ve known it, is dead”

Won’t someone please point me to a positive story about (what we’ve started calling) “terrestrial” radio? Mabye it’s just media dog-piling but everytime I click my mouse, someone is predicting (or declaring) the death of radio. Alyce Lomax (The Motley Fool) is pissed and sad at the passing of (Thursday) of Washington D.C. radio station WHFS.

“Radio, as we’ve known it, is dead. The news about HFS obviously struck a chord with me, but with satellite radio, Internet radio, and things like Apple’s iTunes (or even the iPod Shuffle!) revolutionizing music and giving listeners more options than ever before, chances are it won’t be missed.”

Okay, Alyce is entitled to her opinion. Now, where are those positive stories about radio?

Clear Channel’s Internet plan

“Radio analysts say Clear Channel, along with other broadcast radio stations, is being pushed online and toward new technologies by a fragmentation of its own market and by growing competition from satellite radio. Mix the power of Internet radio with those new delivery tools, and terrestrial radio begins to look increasingly fragile, unless it’s online too, some observers worry.” — CNET

Local News

The news director at the station in my home town called this morning to ask about my brother. Lots of folks in Kennett know he is in Indonesia and have been asking about him. I told him what little I knew. Just a little human interest story. Very local. A big city station or a “nothing but the hits” station wouldn’t consider this remotely newsworthy. I’m really glad to know they’ve started doing this kind of local news again (maybe they never stopped).

At about the same time, I received a pointer (from XM Ben) to an interesting article on the state of radio in 2004 (Radio in 2004: An Overview, by Lawrence Stoler):

“One of radio’s strong points that can not necessarily be achieved to the fullest extent on satellite radio is localism. In other words, being out and active in the community. Being at the scene of an important event at a moment’s notice and providing necessary information to the residents of where a station is licensed to broadcast. The industry has to resume this practice of being community active. Radio has to go back to providing information after 8:30 AM during the week or in the evening after #7 and on weekends too. Not every area of the country has a 24 hour all news station within hearable range.”

I honestly don’t see how radio stations (or TV stations, for that matter) will survive without a strong, serious commitment to local news.

National Association of Broadcasters

The cover story (by Scott Woolley) in the September issue of Forbes is really more about the National Association of Broadcasters than XM Radio.

“For decades the radio industry has crushed incipient competitors by wielding raw political muscle and arguments that are at once apocalyptic and apocryphal. Radio station owners, who formed the National Association of Broadcasters in 1923, have won laws and regulations that have banned, crippled or massively delayed every major new competitive technology since the first threat emerged in 1934: FM radio.”

What would radio be like if broadcasters put this much energy into doing better radio?