What will radio look and sound like in 15 years?

(Forbes.com) “Had we asked the same question 15 years ago, the answer would have been “pretty much the same.” But it’s clear that radio is going through one of the most fundamental changes in its history since the dawn of stereo FM signals in the 1960s.

Already, satellite radio services like XM Satellite Radio (nasdaq: XMSR – news – people ) and Sirius Satellite Radio (nasdaq: SIRI – news – people ) have proved there’s a market for pay radio, though both have a long way to go before satellite radio is truly a mass-market service the way cable television is today. Ask any subscriber of either service and they’ll tell you they wonder how they ever got along without it.

Terrestrial broadcasters–those that broadcast from the ground, as opposed to in space via satellite like XM and Sirius–are in the process of rolling out enhanced services that will boost sound quality and add the ability to broadcast two programs on one station.

But what makes the future of radio interesting is the Internet. Some of the best radio programming is available online. This can be convenient if you’re from one region of the United States but living elsewhere, for example, and miss a favorite local radio program from back home. So far the best way to do this is via a computer equipped with a broadband connection.

But take a radio and give it a network connection. There are radios and tabletop stereo sets on the market that can connect to the Internet without a computer and stream audio from Internet radio stations. Add in support for Wi-Fi networking–essentially equal to an Ethernet port without a cord–and you have a radio that can go anywhere in the home and play sound from anywhere in the world without regard to the broadcasting station’s location. You may live in San Francisco and listen to state radio from Beijing or London or Bombay as easily as you do local radio, just as long as those faraway stations stream their programming online.

Take it a step further. Wi-Fi is limited by how far a network signal can reach–generally a few hundred feet from the access point or hot spot. Now imagine wireless Internet connections that aren’t as limited by distance. The new buzz is surrounding WiMax, a Wi-Fi-like networking technology that could boast a range of up to 30 miles from its source. Suddenly, every radio station in the world that broadcasts on the Internet will be reachable from nearly anywhere in the world where there’s WiMax coverage. A wireless Internet connection will be an expected feature, not a curiosity found only on a few high-end models. Radio will be a global medium once again.

That’s not all. Radios will have hard drives. At least one handheld radio, the Radio YourWay from Pogo Products, has one. The drives will serve at least two functions. You’ll use them to record favorite shows so you can listen anytime you like–the equivalent of TiVo (nasdaq: TIVO – news – people ) for television.

Second, the drives will be used to cache extra content that comes embedded inside the radio signal. You’ll select certain local stations that will broadcast constantly updated news, traffic, weather and perhaps even stock quotes, and those broadcasts will be automatically stored for you to listen to anytime you want to hear them at the push of a button.

Having a hard drive embedded in a radio opens up another range of possibilities. If a radio has both an Internet connection and a hard drive, it will be able to download software that gives it increased functionality. Radios will be able to do many things if only their owners are willing to pay for the features. Inside these radios will be chips that can adapt to whatever task they’re called upon to do.”

Forbes.com

The O’Franken Factor

The highly-promoted debut of author and comedian Al Franken’s talk show, “The O’Franken Factor,” on the new “Air America” radio network apparently set a record. Air America’s VP/Marketing Leon Colaco says the network’s website handled nearly 500,000 unique visitors in the 22-hour period between 7PM Wednesday and 5PM Thursday. (final numbers from Air America streaming provider RealNetworks will not be available until next week.) This might be the largest number of simultaneous listeners that Real had handled since ABC News’s coverage of the 9/11 attacks on September 12, 2001, which hit 86,700 concurrent listeners. [More at RAIN]

Air Left

I listened to Air America several times –for a few minutes at time– today. Not enough to form much of an opinion. Initial impressions: Sort of spooky hearing a talk show host wailing on the Republicans. After all these years of Rush, it just felt strange to hear someone so openly bashing the Republicans and Bush. (I know, I know, the liberal media blah, blah, blah). But I can’t say I was much impressed with the execution. But, it’s early. Sounds like Jeff listened more, and more thoughtfully, than I. (By my count, Jeff is on his third name for his weblog. I like this one.) Politics aside, Rush does radio very well. I suspect that has as much to do with his success as his views. I’ll be surprised if the Air America folks can measure up. We’ll see (hear).

New XM channel?

In a post titled The Death of Broadcast, Jeff Jarvis writes about Howard Stern, broadcast radio and government regulation and where it’s all headed:

– Stern will engineer his firing from Viacom.
– Stern will sign with satellite, giving satellite the boost it needs to become a viable business.
– Buy satellite stock now. Sell radio stock now.
– Broadcast radio will quickly falter, losing attention to MP3s, satellite, and cellular broadcast. Broadcast radio will die. Consolidation won’t kill it. Censorship will.
– Satellite will grow rapidly, getting more consumer revenue and ad revenue.
– Broadcast TV will suffer similar blows.
– Cable and satellite TV will grow.
– The bottom line: Any medium that can be government-regulated will shrink; any medium free of government regulation will grow.

XM Radio will provide local traffic and weather

On March 1, XM Radio will provide local traffic and weather in 21 metos, including St. Louis. The Weather Channel is doing the weather and a company called TrafficPulse is doing the traffic. You can listen to a sample on the XM site. Since I got my XM Radio, my friends in “traditional” radio have dismissed it as an expensive juke-box service. “Besides,” they pointed out, “they can’t do local stuff like traffic and weather.” Now when I drive in to St. Louis –or before I even start for St. Louis– I can check the traffic situation. Any reason they couldn’t hire some reporters in each market and provide local news?

Imus was right

Thirty years ago (during my KBOA days) I was attending the annual meeting of the National Association of Broadcasters. Lots of big name talent on hand, including Don Imus and Robert W. Morgan. I spotted them sitting at the bar (the Mint Julip according to the bar napkin) and couldn’t resist going over, introducing myself, and asking for their autographs (I know, I know). They saw my name tag and asked me what station I was with. I assured them they’d never heard of it. Then Imus asked how long I had worked there.

“About ten years,” I said. To which Imus replied, “If you’ve stayed at one little radio station for ten years without getting fired or quitting, you’ll never go anywhere in this business. You should pack it in.”

Robert W. Morgan thought that was a little harsh and told Imus so. I made my escape. I thought about it many times over the years and Imus was right. There are a million small town radio guys who lack the talent or the ambition or both to make it to the Bigs. I’m proud to have been one of them.

Music Radio

The following thoughts on radio are by Bob Lefsetz. I searched –unsuccessfully– for the article or a website to which I could link.

“The only people who still believe in music radio are the conglomerates with monopolies and the major record labels. All the LISTENERS, the POTENTIAL listeners, think it’s a JOKE! If you’re listening to music radio, you’re the lowest common denominator. You don’t have a CD player in your car. Like everybody with any MONEY! And, unlike the sixties, almost NO ONE listens to music on the radio at home. Really. Pay attention. When do people listen to the radio at home. In the morning. It’s PERFECT. While you’re walking around the house, getting your shit together. And, is there any MUSIC in the morning? Almost none. Because the music being purveyed SUCKS! Music radio is a giant sinkhole. I can understand the majors wanting to reduce indie promo costs, but what I CAN’T understand is their reluctance to explore new avenues of exploitation. Look at the statistics. Music radio listenership keeps going DOWN! Kids especially don’t listen.”

Mary Quass on radio and the Internet

Mary Quass is a really smart, really nice lady that’s been very successful in the radio business. I haven’t seen the full interview yet but today’s issue of RAIN pulled some excerpts from the May 26, 2003 issue of Radio Ink Magazine:

“This (Internet) is the first technology to mean that anybody can have a radio station as good as, if not better, than what’s out there today — and it has nothing to do with a license. I want to be in and out of the business by then… “

“When I go to the gym to work out, you know what I do? I listen to MP3s on my Rio. If I grew up with radio and I’m listening to MP3s, why should we expect young people to listen to radio when their lives are so packed with other things? That’s why, when the Internet becomes wireless, I want to be there.’.. “

“Radio has taken for granted that we will always have 96 percent of the adult population listening to this medium in a week. But we know that response rates and that kind of stuff are declining — not so much because Arbitron’s methodology necessarily is flawed or archaic, as much as it is that people want what they want when they want it.”

“It’s all about the product. If you have a great product and it’s in demand, people will use that product. If we don’t differentiate our product when the Internet becomes wireless, it will be a whole new ball game for all of us. We had better be ready, or the frustration we feel will only grow.”

You think?

Radio TiVo

“…the Radio YourWay might be the first one that actually functions like a TiVo. It’s an MP3 player with a built-in AM/FM radio recorder that can be set to record at specific times, and can save up to four hours of programming as MP3 files which can then be transferred to a PC when you run out of space.” I don’t listen to all that much (non-XM) radio these days but this is pretty damned cool. By way of evhead.