Doc Searls: What’s Around the Bend?

Doc Searls is on a panel (Public Media 2008) titled Technology and Trends: What’s Around the Bend? From his list of ten, here are three I found interesting:

  • Cell phones will be the new radios and televisions. This will start to happen in a big way the minute Apple opens its iPhones to independent developers of native applications (rather than just ones that run in a browser).
  • Websites will become as inadequate as transmitters. That is, both will remain necessary but insufficient means for reaching listeners and viewers, and for relating to them. “Live Web” methods such as streaming, file sharing, social networking and “rivers of news” will all play roles as well.
  • Archives will be the ultimate killer kontent. Stations and networks will come to value not only their own archives, but will work to make those archives as easy as possible to find, consume and otherwise use — and to open CRM systems for VRM tools to make it as easy as possible for listeners and viewers to voluntarily pay for the privilege. Bigger inventory, bigger income.

I couldn’t begin to guess the number of hours I’ve spent archiving material (I think Doc hates the term “content”). MissouriDeathRow.com; Legislature.com; Missouri Supreme Court oral arguments; and –once upon a time– Missouri State Highway Patrol accident reports. We saved damn near everything but I can’t say that I noticed a huge appetite for that archived material and I was never smart enough to make any serious money with it. But we’ve got it.

What happens when nobody needs a TV

“Last week, a Broadcasting & Cable editorial warned that TV newscasts could follow the way of the newspaper.  This week, B&C’s Jennifer Yarter asks, “What happens when the web starts to replace the television?” Yarter said the catalyst of her column was a dinner with a group of tech-savvy 20-somethings who said they don’t watch TV or even subscribe to cable or satellite. They just watch whatever they want online. Yarter writes, “Most of these young adults are falling into a new territory of media consumption that could potentially eliminate the need for local television stations.”

“Absolutely, and consider this: the only thing that most local TV stations produce is local news. Local TV news in its current form, when translated online, looks very similar to everyone else’s news. If it’s not truly original or unique, it’s a commodity (especially in aggregated environments). And as more people get their local news online instead of making an appointment to watch it on TV, revenue loss will accelerate. A solution here is to start producing original content that bridges platforms — that’s unique enough to not only to attract an audience but create fans. Fans are people who accept no substitutes. Can local TV news, by itself, create this kind of online loyalty? I don’t believe so. It will require new, innovative, locally-produced niche programming that spans TV, mobile and the web. In other words, a whole new approach. Similar to the newspapers, it will be a matter of survival.”

— Lost Remote

I keep asking myself why nobody in a position to do so, is tackling this. The answer I keep coming up with, time after time is that reinventing your TV station (or your radio station) for the new world we’re in is –in the short term– risky and expensive. And the decision makers are close enough to retirement (or have their fuck-you money put aside) that they have decided (even if they haven’t admitted it aloud) to manage their stations to “a profitable demise.” Milk the cash cow until Bossie goes dry.

Balloon man visits nursing home

Balloon artist Addi Somekh creates balloon art at a nursing home. I have nothing but admiration for people who give their time and talent in this way. I spent some time in a nursing home with my pop and there’s precious little to smile about. If the Balloon Man ever comes to visit me at the Home for Retired Bloggers, I would like a huge pink penis hat.

TV will never be the same

Gave the Apple TV (Take 2) a good test drive last night by watching Ratatouille. I don’t think I rented the high def version but this was still as sharp and clear as anything I’ve watched since getting this TV.

Just to be sure, I rented The Brave One in high def and could see by the progress bar that it was going to take a while to download. But within a minute or two, a message came on that said we could start watching the movie. Once enough of the file has downloaded to buffer, you’re good to go.

I’ve also been sampling more video podcasts. The Apple TV makes this so easy it didn’t dawn on me right away, but I don’t have to subscribe to these podcasts. I can, but it’s not necessary. I can just hit play. On the latest episode or previous ones.

When I try to describe Apple TV, people say, "How is that different than Tivo?" Tivo is great for recording network or cable shows, but there’s a world of stuff online that will never make it to network or cable. And Apple TV has made it drop-dead easy to watch these programs on the big screen. Think plugging your TV into the Internet.

Apple TV. Take Two.

Appletv2I think they got it right this time. My Apple TV brings the net to my living room. I can rent movies, buy TV shows and music, watch podcasts and YouTube videos and view photos from Flickr (mine or anyone else’s).

I can Tivo all my favorite shows and watch them when I want but the new Apple TV feels like a very different viewing experience. Give me a week or two to get familiar with it. I’m looking forward to watching more video podcasts. This might be the future of TV. Smarter folk than I seem to agree.